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Over 40 filovirus disease outbreaks have been reported since the discovery of the first member of the Filoviridae family, and most of the outbreaks have occurred in Africa. In addition to deaths (primary impacts), there have also ...
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Over 40 filovirus disease outbreaks have been reported since the discovery of the first member of the Filoviridae family, and most of the outbreaks have occurred in Africa. In addition to deaths (primary impacts), there have also been health, social, economic, and political effects (secondary impacts) due to the outbreaks. Two large filovirus disease outbreaks have occurred in West and Central Africa in recent times, and direct and indirect repercussions resulting from the outbreaks underscores the need to strengthen the capacity of health services in disease hotspots.
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Contagious animal diseases like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are often referred to as economic diseases because of the magnitude of economic harm they can cause to producers and to local communities. This study demonstrates the lo...
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Contagious animal diseases like foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are often referred to as economic diseases because of the magnitude of economic harm they can cause to producers and to local communities. This study demonstrates the local economic impact of a FMD outbreak in southwest Kansas. The expected economic impact of the disease hinges heavily on where the incidence of the disease occurs. Disease surveillance, management strategies, mitigation investment, and overall diligence clearly need to be much greater in concentrated cattle feeding and processing areas at large feeding operations in the region.
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We develop a three dimensional compartmental model to investigate the impact of media coverage to the spread and control of infectious diseases (such as SARS) in a given region/area. Stability analysis of the model shows that the ...
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We develop a three dimensional compartmental model to investigate the impact of media coverage to the spread and control of infectious diseases (such as SARS) in a given region/area. Stability analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable if a certain threshold quantity, the basic reproduction number (R_0), is less than unity. On the other hand, if R_0 > 1, it is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium appears and a Hopf bifurcation can occur which causes oscillatory phenomena. The model may have up to three positive equilibria. Numerical simulations suggest that when R_0 > 1 and the media impact is stronger enough, the model exhibits multiple positive equilibria which poses challenge to the prediction and control of the outbreaks of infectious diseases.
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Foot and mouth disease is endemic in Middle Eastern countries including Iran but its impact is poorly characterized. The present study was conducted to evaluate the impact of FMD outbreak on milk production and heifers' growth in ...
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Foot and mouth disease is endemic in Middle Eastern countries including Iran but its impact is poorly characterized. The present study was conducted to evaluate the impact of FMD outbreak on milk production and heifers' growth in an industrial dairy herd located in Fars province, southern Iran. Data about individual milk production, heifers' growth and total daily milk (sold for manufacturing), its fat and protein content and somatic cell counts were collected from the herd database. Based on the results of the linear mixed models, a significant decline in individual milk production after the outbreak was observed compared with before the outbreak. There was a total reduction of 8.0 and 4.7% in mean daily milk production per cow after the outbreak when compared with before (over a 42 days outbreak period) in lactation one(P<0.001) and lactation >= 2 cows (P=0.024), respectively. The total daily milk (P=0.027) and protein (P=0.002) showed significant decline during the outbreak period. The fat content decreased after the outbreak (P=0.014). Somatic cell counts did not show significant changes. The recorded heifers' weights(4-17 months of age) showed 7.1 kg decrease after the outbreak in comparison with the period before that (P<0.001). In conclusion, we observed a negative impact of FMD outbreak on milk production and heifers' growth in study herd. The impact on daily milk production was less than the values reported previously. This difference could be attributed at least partly to differences in livestock genetics and management practices. Lower growth rate of heifers after the outbreak period could potentially extend the age at first calving. It is suggested that farmers are educated on awareness and preparation for infectious disease outbreaks and to practice good management routines that could potentially reduce the economic impact of these diseases. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a truly wicked problem which has remained a stubborn issue plaguing multiple countries worldwide. The continuously increasing number of infections and deaths has driven several coun...
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The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a truly wicked problem which has remained a stubborn issue plaguing multiple countries worldwide. The continuously increasing number of infections and deaths has driven several countries to implement control and response strategies including community lockdowns, physical distancing, and travel bans with different levels of success. However, a disease outbreak and the corresponding policies can cause disastrous economic consequences due to business closures and risk minimization behaviors. This paper develops a system dynamics framework of a disease outbreak system covering various policies to evaluate their effectiveness in mitigating transmission and the resulting economic burden. The system dynamics modeling approach captures the relationships, feedbacks, and delays in such a system, revealing meaningful insights on the dynamics of several response strategies.
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Objectives To identify the prevalence of a stigmatizing attitude towards people of Chinese origin at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK population and investigate factors associated with holding the stigmatizing attitude...
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Objectives To identify the prevalence of a stigmatizing attitude towards people of Chinese origin at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK population and investigate factors associated with holding the stigmatizing attitude. Design Online cross-sectional survey conducted 10-13 February 2020 (n = 2006, people aged 16 years or over and living in the UK). Methods We asked participants to what extent they agreed it was best to avoid areas heavily populated by Chinese people because of the COVID-19 outbreak. Survey materials also asked about: worry, perceived risk, knowledge, information receipt, perception of government response to COVID-19, and personal characteristics. We ran binary logistic regressions to investigate associations between holding a stigmatizing attitude, personal characteristics, and psychological and contextual factors. Results 26.1% people (95% CI 24.2-28.0%, n = 524/2006) agreed it was best to avoid areas heavily populated by Chinese people. Holding a stigmatizing attitude was associated with greater worry about COVID-19, greater perceived risk of COVID-19, and poorer knowledge about COVID-19. Conclusions At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a large percentage of the UK public endorsed avoiding areas in the UK heavily populated by people of Chinese origin. This attitude was associated with greater worry about, and perceived risk of, the COVID-19 outbreak as well as poorer knowledge about COVID-19. At the start of future novel infectious disease outbreaks, proactive communications from official sources should provide context and facts to reduce uncertainty and challenge stigmatizing attitudes, to minimize harms to affected communities.
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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, ...
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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with varying levels of success. However, a disease outbreak can cause significant economic disruption from business closures and risk avoidance behaviors. This paper raises policy recommendations through a system dynamics modeling approach. The developed model captures relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system. The dynamics of several policies are analyzed and assessed based on effectiveness in mitigating infection and the resulting economic strain.
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Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evalua...
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Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has had alarming effects on human lives and the economies of affected countries. With the world's manufacturing hubs experiencing a period of extended factory closures, the economic...
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The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has had alarming effects on human lives and the economies of affected countries. With the world's manufacturing hubs experiencing a period of extended factory closures, the economic impact transcends territorial borders via global supply chains. This paper provides a roadmap on how to evaluate the vulnerability that cascades through the supply chain due to a disease outbreak at the firm level, national level, and global scale. The final extent of losses is not yet known, but the development of economic models combined with epidemiological models and network analysis techniques can yield more realistic estimates to select appropriate strategies in a timely manner.
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Animal pathogens attract attention in both the livestock and public health sectors for their impacts on socio-economics, food safety and security, and human health. These impacts are felt at the household, national, regional and g...
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Animal pathogens attract attention in both the livestock and public health sectors for their impacts on socio-economics, food safety and security, and human health. These impacts are felt at the household, national, regional and global levels. Whereas the World Organisation for Animal Health (01E) has identified 118 animal diseases as notifiable, based on their potential for impact on trade, there is a selected subset that have been classified as posing a greater threat to countries due to unique characteristics, such as being highly transmissible, spreading rapidly within and between countries, and requiring cooperation between several countries to control their spread or exclude them. While these 'transboundary diseases' are endemic in much of the world, particularly the developing nations, many countries are classified as disease free.
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